Bird Flu and Preparations

I was in Walmart last night and it suddenly hit me that I should at least stock up on conventional flu remedies since it was likely that if the pandemic actually came to pass that those might be hard to get as well. So I got three different fever reducers, flu meds to dry you out (i remembered that in 1918 it was snot that seemed to be doing people in), cloriseptic and pepto. Probably silly to have all this on hand, but hey better to have than not. As I watched my daughter I thought, "what wouldn't people do to save their children when they start to panic"... now where's the gun department..

So back to the questions of DEATH and panic. What happens if it gets bad enough to kill 1 in 100. That means probably 50% of the population gets infected. People stop going to work out of fear, things grind to a halt rather rapidly. People become numb to other natural disasters. Much like a national hurricane of fear. Long term 1 out a 100 isn't a big deal, short term the psychological and social impacts are huge. Particular if those with compromised immune systems are hit harder. 1 out a hundred works out to 3 million deaths. Makes 9/11 look puny. That's 50 million dollars in new money going to funeral homes and cemetaries, estates and lawyers get to be big deal. 2 out of a hundred 6-7 milion, 3 out of hundred 12-15.

These numbers seem both incredible and small when I think about the current morbidities in south east asia, 5 out of 10. How many people want to leave their homes to work or go to school? I'd guess many would continue to go particularly hourly people without any vacation or sick time. But that in itself could create a demographic hit. More exposure for a specific demographic group translates into higher numbers of deaths. I'm already guessing that the poor will be more directly affected than the rich and middle class. That suggests a real hit to those in the lower third of the income bracket. We might have to raise taxes on the rich after all...

News for the day:
Turkey bird flu 'is deadly strain' CNN - 49 minutes ago
Weak-link Laos gets US funds for bird flu fight
Hong Kong's Tsang outlines huge bird flu response plan; outbreak ' ...
Bird flu drug maker won't share patent Roche the sole manufacturer ... hmm Roche says no to sharing, how long before somebody's shoe steps on them?